Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 29	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 31	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 1	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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