Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 9	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, June 10	15%
Day 6	Thursday, June 11	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, June 9: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, June 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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