Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 9	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, June 10	15%
Day 7	Thursday, June 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 9: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, June 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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