Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, November 5

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, November 5

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, November 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, November 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, November 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, November 5	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290742 SPC AC 290742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity

An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains.

Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk. Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to mid-week.

..Leitman.. 10/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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