Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, November 9

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, November 9

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, November 5	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, November 6	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, November 7	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 8	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, November 9	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.

From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, November 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, November 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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