Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 7

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, November 7

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, November 3	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, November 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, November 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, November 6	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, November 7	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.

For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.

..Jewell.. 10/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, November 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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