Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, November 6

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, November 6

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, November 2	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, November 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, November 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, November 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, November 6	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.

By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.

This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.

..Jewell.. 10/30/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, October 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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