Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Monday, August 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 31	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 1	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270826 SPC AC 270826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to follow the track of the upper-air system with moderate to strong instability expected by afternoon ahead of the boundary. Various deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates thunderstorms developing over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley with subsequent movement into the mid MO Valley and perhaps upper Midwest Thursday night. Forecast vertical shear is on the margins of that which supports organized storm modes and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, isolated severe weather appears likely, requiring at least low probabilities in the Day 3 time frame.

### Day 5/Friday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is expected to continue southeast through the Midwest with an associated surface low developing into the mid MS Valley. A trailing cool front will extend through the Ozark Plateau into the Southern Plains. Persistent low-level ridging from the lower Great Lakes into the TN Valley will limit the eastward extent of more robust air mass destabilization ahead of the surface low and along the track of the short-wave trough. It does appear that a corridor of stronger instability and modest vertical shear will develop from the mid MS Valley into the Ozark Plateau, where a few severe storms appear possible.

### Day 6-8/Saturday through Monday

The 00Z ensemble means remain in good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the Pacific northwest to the northern Plains. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 28: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.