Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, August 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, August 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday

Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.

D5/Sunday

Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.

D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday

A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.

..Dean.. 08/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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