Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, August 16	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130906 SPC AC 130906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Deep-layer shear is generally forecast to remain weak, but moderate unidirectional westerly flow (potentially 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) within a favorably moist and unstable environment will support potential for multiple storm clusters with wind-damage potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding frontal timing and the influence (if any) of MCVs emanating from the Plains and Midwest. Also, given the generally weak deep-layer shear, the magnitude of the severe threat will be strongly influenced by the extent of pre-convective heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates. Confidence is too low to add a 15% area at this time, though severe probabilities will likely be needed later in the outlook cycle.

D5/Monday

The front will move southeastward on Monday into parts of the mid-MS/lower Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Scattered storms are again expected along/ahead of the front. Some weakening of low/midlevel flow is expected and deep-layer shear will remain modest at best, so the severe threat may remain rather isolated.

Farther west, increasing moisture and instability within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime could result in some severe-storm potential from the central High Plains into the Dakotas.

D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday

Predictability regarding the upper-level pattern begins to wane by early/mid next week. In general, periodic bouts of severe storms may continue across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along the periphery of a persistent upper ridge. A less-organized severe threat may also persist near the remnant frontal zone across parts of the Southeast/Carolinas.

..Dean.. 08/13/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, August 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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