Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon

A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.

Days 5-8/Tue-Fri

Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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