Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, August 18	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150752 SPC AC 150752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue - NE/IA and vicinity

An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday, with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the evening.

Days 5-8

Upper trough will deepen across the eastern U.S. and persist into the weekend. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will remain in place across the western U.S. A surface front will sag south and east on Wednesday and Thursday as upper trough deepens and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Some isolated severe risk could emerge over the Mid-South/TN valley toward the Eastern Seaboard in response, but deep-layer flow will remain weak and low-level winds mostly parallel to the surface front, limiting a more substantial/organized risk.

..Leitman.. 08/15/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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