Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Wed-Thu – Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend, with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.

Days 7-8/Sat-Sun – Northern/Central Plains

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, some severe risk could develop.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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