Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, August 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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