Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.

On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.

Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.

There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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