Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.

To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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