Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.

To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.

Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Friday, August 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.