Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 9

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, September 5	15%
Day 5	Sunday, September 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, September 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, September 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, September 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, September 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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