Severe Weather Outlook

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• Thursday, September 10 →

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts will remain possible through late evening from the upper Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100040

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts will remain possible through late evening from the upper Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.

Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening along and ahead of a cold front from north-central PA into central OH within a moist air mass with the 00Z Pittsburgh sounding indicating MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. Moreover, the corresponding wind profile exhibited relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear with effective SRH of around 250 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear of around 40 kt. So, while lapse rates and resultant instability are expected to weaken with the loss of daytime heating, the kinematic environment will remain supportive of transient supercell and bowing structures capable of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado for the next couple of hours.

### Southern Plains into the Ozarks

A thunderstorm complex ongoing southeast of Kansas City this evening is located to the north of the synoptic front that stretches from central MO through far southeast KS and northwest OK into the TX Panhandle. Some cold pool organization is present per KEAX base velocity data, with recent reports of wind damage and wind gusts up to 59 mph. The air mass ahead of the storms has been slightly modified by convective outflow but still remains sufficiently buoyant to sustain the ongoing storms with a continued risk for isolated severe wind gusts through the remainder of the evening.

Over the southern Plains, widely scattered thunderstorms continue this evening along and in the immediate wake of the front. The air mass ahead of the front remains hot with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which will remain supportive of locally severe wind gusts for the next hour or two.

..Mead.. 09/10/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: low

WIND: 15%

Thursday, September 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Friday, September 11

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, September 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, September 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook