Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, September 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, September 10

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, September 6	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, September 7	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, September 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, September 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, September 10	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030738 SPC AC 030738

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will persist across the central CONUS through early next week, before gradually weakening in favor of more amplified, progressive upper troughs. Through the beginning of next week, a few impulses ejecting into the northern Plains may be accompanied by enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support an isolated severe threat. However, confidence is too low to delineate a more focused severe threat at this time. Likewise, there is a lack of consensus among medium-range deterministic and ML/AI guidance regarding the track and timing of any particular shortwave upper trough later next week, precluding the introduction of any severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, September 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, September 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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