Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, September 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, September 11

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, September 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, September 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.

The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.

..Leitman.. 09/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, September 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, September 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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