Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, September 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 12

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, September 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, September 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, September 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, September 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, September 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.

Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest

At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, September 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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