Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, September 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 13

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, September 10	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, September 11	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, September 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, September 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.

Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, September 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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