Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, September 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 14

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, September 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, September 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, September 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, September 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, September 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070732 SPC AC 070732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spread east across the Northeast on Day 4/Thursday. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place, but vertical shear will weaken through the day and deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front, but may tend to be just to the cool side of the boundary. Nevertheless, some low-end severe potential could develop from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as the front sags southward across the region.

During the weekend into early next week, forecast guidance suggests a more progressive upper pattern will emerge across the northern tier of the U.S. A series of shortwave upper troughs will move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast during this time. Some severe risk is likely to develop ahead of the upper shortwave troughs around the Day 5/Friday to Day 8/Monday time period. However, large spread exists in both the timing and intensity of these upper trough, resulting in vastly different evolution and timing of key surface features (mainly surface low position). These differences have large implications for where the best corridors of severe potential will ultimately develop, but severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks for portions the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest during the weekend.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, September 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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