Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 15

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, September 11	15%
Day 5	Saturday, September 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, September 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, September 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, September 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity

Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.

Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue

An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, September 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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