Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 16

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, September 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, September 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, September 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, September 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, September 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090727 SPC AC 090727

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Central Plains

A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday. Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear. While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability appears less than 15 percent at this time.

Days 5-6/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Great Lakes

An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.

As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity. Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong storms could still occur.

..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Thursday, September 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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