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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley

A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.

Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.

..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, September 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Friday, September 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, September 12

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, September 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, September 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, September 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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