Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, September 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, September 18

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 14	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, September 15	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 16	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, September 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, September 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110859 SPC AC 110859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a remnant cyclonic circulation and associated mid-level troughing, likely accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent international border vicinity by early Monday, may be accompanied by substantive surface cyclogenesis across southern Manitoba through northwestern Ontario Monday through Monday night, before continuing east-northeastward into the higher latitudes. It appears that this will occur coincident with the transition to a more progressive regime across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, including the gradual suppression of a blocking high initially to the southeast of the Aleutians. It also appears likely to coincide with the redevelopment of rather prominent mid/upper ridging becoming centered across the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity, and increasingly influential across much of the central and eastern U.S. into the middle to latter portions of next week, before becoming suppressed and retrograding west-southwestward.

In association with this regime, although there is some uncertainty concerning low-level moisture return and destabilization, it still appears that an evolving warm frontal zone could become a focus for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward Upper Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low, though there may still be areas of strong storm development with rather isolated or marginal severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, September 11: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, September 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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