Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, September 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 21

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, September 17	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, September 18	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, September 19	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, September 20	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, September 21	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140854 SPC AC 140854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output continues to indicate that initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridging will gradually become suppressed late this week into next weekend. However, short wave developments within the westerlies become more unclear by next weekend into early next week. In general, it appears that a modest to weak split flow will evolve across much of North America, as larger positive mid-level height anomalies tend to develop across interior Canada.

It is possible that diurnal destabilization will remain sufficient to support areas of stronger daily thunderstorm development across the U.S., supported by forcing for ascent associated with these evolving perturbations. However, any associated severe weather seems unlikely to become particularly well organized and probably will remain rather isolated and/or marginal in nature.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, September 14: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, September 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

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