Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, September 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 19

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, September 15	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, September 16	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, September 17	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, September 18	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, September 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.

..Kerr.. 09/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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