Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Sunday, September 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 20

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 16	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, September 17	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, September 18	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, September 19	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, September 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.

..Kerr.. 09/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 14: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Center after dragging

Off Near edge Always

Map loads as you approach it.

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.