Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 22

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, September 18	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, September 19	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, September 20	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, September 21	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, September 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.

..Kerr.. 09/15/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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