Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Wednesday, September 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 23

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, September 19	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, September 20	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, September 21	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, September 22	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, September 23	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.

Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.

..Kerr.. 09/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, September 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Center after dragging

Off Near edge Always

Map loads as you approach it.

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.