Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, September 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, September 24

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, September 20	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, September 21	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, September 22	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, September 23	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, September 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.

In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/17/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, September 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, September 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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