Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, September 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, September 25

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 22	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 23	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, September 24	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, September 25	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180820 SPC AC 180820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Initially zonal mid-level flow, with embedded low-amplitude impulses traversing the central CONUS early next week, will give way to gradual amplification of an upper ridge over the central U.S. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms will be on Day 4/Monday across the TN Valley, where a surface cold front, preceded by rich low-level moisture, will be slow to clear the region. Thereafter, drier low-level conditions will prevail across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with surface high pressure poised to settle over much of the U.S. between the MS River and the Appalachians, limiting the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, September 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, September 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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