Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, September 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 27

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 23	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, September 24	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, September 25	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, September 26	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, September 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).

..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 20: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, September 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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