Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, September 28

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 28

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, September 24	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, September 25	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, September 26	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, September 27	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, September 28	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, September 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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