Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 29

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, September 25	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, September 26	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, September 27	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, September 28	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, September 29	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, September 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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