Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 30

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 30

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, September 26	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, September 27	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, September 28	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, September 29	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, September 30	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.

At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.

..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, September 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, September 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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