Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, October 1

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, September 27	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, September 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, September 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, September 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, October 1	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240826 SPC AC 240826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level cutoff low will meander along the East Coast and will gradually depart the region early next week as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and impinges on the central U.S. Medium range guidance consensus varies in the morphology of the upper trough. The 00Z GFS features a rapidly progressing upper wave over the Plains to the OH Valley Days 5-7 (Monday-Wednesday), while the 00Z Euro shows a mid-level trough evolving into a cut-off low that meanders over the Plains through the week. Both scenarios result in an appreciably strong surface low developing over the central Plains sometime mid next week, accompanied by near 70 F surface dewpoints and a buoyancy/vertical shear overlap supportive of a severe threat. However, too much variability in guidance precludes the delineation of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, September 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, September 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, September 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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