Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, October 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, October 2

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 28	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, October 1	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, October 2	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, September 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, September 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 27: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, September 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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