Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, October 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, October 3

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, September 29	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, September 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, October 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, October 2	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, October 3	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, September 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, September 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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