Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 6

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, October 6

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 2	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, October 3	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, October 4	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, October 5	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, October 6	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.

Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.

..Broyles.. 09/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 29: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 30: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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