Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, November 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, November 2

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 29	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, October 30	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, October 31	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 1	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, November 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.

Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 10/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, October 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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