Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, November 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, November 3

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 30	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, October 31	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, November 1	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, November 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, November 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.

Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.

..Leitman.. 10/27/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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