Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, November 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, November 4

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, October 31	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, November 1	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, November 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, November 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, November 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS

A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, October 28: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, October 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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