Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, November 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, November 12

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 8	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, November 9	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, November 10	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, November 11	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, November 12	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.

Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.

..Jewell.. 11/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Saturday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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