Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, November 15

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, November 15

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, November 11	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, November 12	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, November 13	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, November 14	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, November 15	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, November 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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