Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, November 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, November 16

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, November 12	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, November 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, November 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 15	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, November 16	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, November 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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