Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, November 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, November 17

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, November 13	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, November 14	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, November 15	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, November 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, November 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, November 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, November 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Thursday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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