Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Wednesday, November 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, November 18

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, November 14	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, November 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, November 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, November 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, November 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 111000 SPC AC 111000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Over the coming weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection is forecast across much of Texas and Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints could increase into the 50s and 60s F. This would contribute to weak instability over parts of the southern Plains Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty exists on where the northern extent of the instability will be but it seems likely that enough instability will be in place by late Sunday afternoon for an isolated severe threat in parts of central and north Texas. As the system moves eastward across the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be on Wednesday over the Florida Peninsula where an unstable airmass is forecast as the trough passes.

..Broyles.. 11/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, November 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Center after dragging

Off Near edge Always

Map loads as you approach it.

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.